luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 7 · Premier League 2025-26 · October 5, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Everton 2–1 Crystal Palace: lucky or expected?

Everton beat Crystal Palace 2–1, and the goals lean Everton’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Crystal Palace, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Everton were expected to score 1.3 here and Crystal Palace 0.9.

Full time

Goals
Everton 2
Crystal Palace 1

October 5, 2025

Luck index +39 Everton lucky · −39 Crystal Palace

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Everton win 5, 3 end level, Crystal Palace win 2.

  1. 1 EVE 2 CRY 1
  2. 2 EVE 2 CRY 1
  3. 3 EVE 2 CRY 1
  4. 4 EVE 2 CRY 0
  5. 5 EVE 3 CRY 0
  6. 6 EVE 0 CRY 0
  7. 7 EVE 2 CRY 2
  8. 8 EVE 1 CRY 1
  9. 9 EVE 1 CRY 3
  10. 10 EVE 0 CRY 1

The goals

Everton’s chance of winning

As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Everton was ahead in it, below while Crystal Palace was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 37' Daniel Munoz (Crystal Palace) 0–1 +30% Crystal Palace
2. 76' Iliman Ndiaye (Everton, penalty) 1–1 +42% Everton
90+3' Jack Grealish (Everton) 2–1

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Everton win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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