Matchday 9 · Premier League 2025-26 · October 24, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Leeds 2–1 West Ham: lucky or expected?
Leeds beat West Ham 2–1, and the goals lean Leeds’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for West Ham, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leeds were expected to score 1.8 here and West Ham 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Leeds United | 2 |
 West Ham United | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +36 Leeds lucky · −36 West Ham
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Leeds win 5, 2 end level, West Ham win 3.
- 1 LEE 1 WHU 0
- 2 LEE 1 WHU 0
- 3 LEE 3 WHU 1
- 4 LEE 3 WHU 1
- 5 LEE 3 WHU 0
- 6 LEE 2 WHU 2
- 7 LEE 0 WHU 0
- 8 LEE 0 WHU 2
- 9 LEE 0 WHU 1
- 10 LEE 0 WHU 1
The goals
Leeds’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 3' | Brenden Aaronson (Leeds) | 1–0 | +22% Leeds |
| 2. 15' | Joe Rodon (Leeds) | 2–0 | +13% Leeds |
| 3. 90' | Mateus Fernandes (West Ham) | 2–1 | +0% West Ham |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Leeds win 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 9, 2025-26
- Chelsea 1–2 Sunderland Oct 25, 2025 · replay 38% for Sunderland
- Newcastle 2–1 Fulham Oct 25, 2025 · replay 58% for Newcastle
- Man United 4–2 Brighton Oct 25, 2025 · replay 63% for Man United
- Brentford 3–2 Liverpool Oct 25, 2025 · replay 53% for Brentford
- Aston Villa 1–0 Man City Oct 26, 2025 · replay 39% for Aston Villa
- Arsenal 1–0 Crystal Palace Oct 26, 2025 · replay 84% for Arsenal
- Wolves 2–3 Burnley Oct 26, 2025 · replay 45% for Burnley
- Bournemouth 2–0 Forest Oct 26, 2025 · replay 62% for Bournemouth
- Everton 0–3 Tottenham Oct 26, 2025 · replay 40% for Tottenham