Matchday 9 · Premier League 2025-26 · October 26, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Wolves 2–3 Burnley: lucky or expected?
Burnley beat Wolves 3–2, but the goals lean toward Wolves: 4 wins in 10 to Burnley’s 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Wolves were expected to score 1.5 here and Burnley 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 |
 Burnley | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +55 Burnley lucky · −55 Wolves
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Wolves win 4, 3 end level, Burnley win 3.
- 1 WOL 1 BUR 0
- 2 WOL 2 BUR 1
- 3 WOL 2 BUR 0
- 4 WOL 3 BUR 0
- 5 WOL 0 BUR 0
- 6 WOL 1 BUR 1
- 7 WOL 0 BUR 0
- 8 WOL 0 BUR 3
- 9 WOL 3 BUR 4
- 10 WOL 1 BUR 2
The goals
Wolves’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 14' | Zian Flemming (Burnley) | 0–1 | +26% Burnley |
| 2. 30' | Zian Flemming (Burnley) | 0–2 | +17% Burnley |
| 3. 42' | Jorgen Strand Larsen (Wolves, penalty) | 1–2 | +17% Wolves |
| 4. 45+4' | Marshall Munetsi (Wolves) | 2–2 | +32% Wolves |
| 90+5' | Lyle Foster (Burnley) | 2–3 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Burnley win 45% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 9, 2025-26
- Leeds 2–1 West Ham Oct 24, 2025 · replay 64% for Leeds
- Chelsea 1–2 Sunderland Oct 25, 2025 · replay 38% for Sunderland
- Newcastle 2–1 Fulham Oct 25, 2025 · replay 58% for Newcastle
- Man United 4–2 Brighton Oct 25, 2025 · replay 63% for Man United
- Brentford 3–2 Liverpool Oct 25, 2025 · replay 53% for Brentford
- Aston Villa 1–0 Man City Oct 26, 2025 · replay 39% for Aston Villa
- Arsenal 1–0 Crystal Palace Oct 26, 2025 · replay 84% for Arsenal
- Bournemouth 2–0 Forest Oct 26, 2025 · replay 62% for Bournemouth
- Everton 0–3 Tottenham Oct 26, 2025 · replay 40% for Tottenham