Matchday 9 · Premier League 2025-26 · October 25, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man United 4–2 Brighton: lucky or expected?
Man United beat Brighton 4–2, and the goals lean Man United’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Brighton, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man United were expected to score 1.8 here and Brighton 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester United | 4 |
 Brighton & Hove Albion | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +37 Man United lucky · −37 Brighton
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 5, 2 end level, Brighton win 3.
- 1 MUN 1 BHA 0
- 2 MUN 1 BHA 0
- 3 MUN 2 BHA 1
- 4 MUN 2 BHA 0
- 5 MUN 3 BHA 0
- 6 MUN 0 BHA 0
- 7 MUN 0 BHA 0
- 8 MUN 1 BHA 3
- 9 MUN 1 BHA 2
- 10 MUN 2 BHA 3
The goals
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 24' | Matheus Cunha (Man United) | 1–0 | +25% Man United |
| 2. 34' | Casemiro (Man United) | 2–0 | +13% Man United |
| 3. 61' | Bryan Mbeumo (Man United) | 3–0 | +2% Man United |
| 4. 74' | Danny Welbeck (Brighton) | 3–1 | +1% Brighton |
| 90+2' | Charalampos Kostoulas (Brighton) | 3–2 | |
| 90+6' | Bryan Mbeumo (Man United) | 4–2 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man United win 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 9, 2025-26
- Leeds 2–1 West Ham Oct 24, 2025 · replay 64% for Leeds
- Chelsea 1–2 Sunderland Oct 25, 2025 · replay 38% for Sunderland
- Newcastle 2–1 Fulham Oct 25, 2025 · replay 58% for Newcastle
- Brentford 3–2 Liverpool Oct 25, 2025 · replay 53% for Brentford
- Aston Villa 1–0 Man City Oct 26, 2025 · replay 39% for Aston Villa
- Arsenal 1–0 Crystal Palace Oct 26, 2025 · replay 84% for Arsenal
- Wolves 2–3 Burnley Oct 26, 2025 · replay 45% for Burnley
- Bournemouth 2–0 Forest Oct 26, 2025 · replay 62% for Bournemouth
- Everton 0–3 Tottenham Oct 26, 2025 · replay 40% for Tottenham