Matchday 12 · Premier League 2025-26 · November 23, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Arsenal 4–1 Tottenham: lucky or expected?
Arsenal beat Tottenham 4–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Arsenal win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Arsenal were expected to score 2.1 here and Tottenham 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Arsenal | 4 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +18 Arsenal about even · −18 Tottenham
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 7, 2 end level, Tottenham win 1.
- 1 ARS 1 TOT 0
- 2 ARS 1 TOT 0
- 3 ARS 3 TOT 1
- 4 ARS 2 TOT 0
- 5 ARS 2 TOT 0
- 6 ARS 3 TOT 0
- 7 ARS 4 TOT 0
- 8 ARS 1 TOT 1
- 9 ARS 1 TOT 1
- 10 ARS 0 TOT 1
The goals
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 36' | Leandro Trossard (Arsenal) | 1–0 | +27% Arsenal |
| 2. 41' | Eberechi Eze (Arsenal) | 2–0 | +13% Arsenal |
| 3. 46' | Eberechi Eze (Arsenal) | 3–0 | +3% Arsenal |
| 4. 55' | Richarlison (Tottenham) | 3–1 | +3% Tottenham |
| 5. 76' | Eberechi Eze (Arsenal) | 4–1 | +1% Arsenal |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Arsenal win 82% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 12, 2025-26
- Burnley 0–2 Chelsea Nov 22, 2025 · replay 64% for Chelsea
- Liverpool 0–3 Forest Nov 22, 2025 · replay 36% for Forest
- Wolves 0–2 Crystal Palace Nov 22, 2025 · replay 60% for Crystal Palace
- Fulham 1–0 Sunderland Nov 22, 2025 · replay 57% for Fulham
- Bournemouth 2–2 West Ham Nov 22, 2025 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Brighton 2–1 Brentford Nov 22, 2025 · replay 58% for Brighton
- Newcastle 2–1 Man City Nov 22, 2025 · replay 35% for Newcastle
- Leeds 1–2 Aston Villa Nov 23, 2025 · replay 49% for Aston Villa
- Man United 0–1 Everton Nov 24, 2025 · replay 32% for Everton