Matchday 12 · Premier League 2025-26 · November 22, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Newcastle 2–1 Man City: lucky or expected?
Newcastle beat Man City 2–1, but the goals lean toward Man City: 6 wins in 10 to Newcastle’s 2, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Newcastle were expected to score 1.2 here and Man City 1.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 2 |
 Manchester City | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +65 Newcastle very lucky · −65 Man City
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 2, 2 end level, Man City win 6.
- 1 NEW 2 MCI 1
- 2 NEW 2 MCI 0
- 3 NEW 1 MCI 1
- 4 NEW 1 MCI 1
- 5 NEW 0 MCI 4
- 6 NEW 0 MCI 2
- 7 NEW 0 MCI 2
- 8 NEW 0 MCI 2
- 9 NEW 0 MCI 1
- 10 NEW 2 MCI 3
The goals
Newcastle’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 63' | Harvey Barnes (Newcastle) | 1–0 | +35% Newcastle |
| 2. 68' | Ruben Dias (Man City) | 1–1 | +37% Man City |
| 3. 70' | Harvey Barnes (Newcastle) | 2–1 | +37% Newcastle |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Newcastle win 35% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 12, 2025-26
- Burnley 0–2 Chelsea Nov 22, 2025 · replay 64% for Chelsea
- Liverpool 0–3 Forest Nov 22, 2025 · replay 36% for Forest
- Wolves 0–2 Crystal Palace Nov 22, 2025 · replay 60% for Crystal Palace
- Fulham 1–0 Sunderland Nov 22, 2025 · replay 57% for Fulham
- Bournemouth 2–2 West Ham Nov 22, 2025 · drawn; replay 23% draws
- Brighton 2–1 Brentford Nov 22, 2025 · replay 58% for Brighton
- Leeds 1–2 Aston Villa Nov 23, 2025 · replay 49% for Aston Villa
- Arsenal 4–1 Tottenham Nov 23, 2025 · replay 82% for Arsenal
- Man United 0–1 Everton Nov 24, 2025 · replay 32% for Everton