luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 12 · Premier League 2025-26 · November 23, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Leeds 1–2 Aston Villa: lucky or expected?

Aston Villa beat Leeds 2–1, but the goals call it even: Aston Villa win 3 of 10, Leeds 4, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leeds were expected to score 1.4 here and Aston Villa 1.4.

Full time

Goals
Leeds United 1
Aston Villa 2

November 23, 2025

Luck index +51 Aston Villa lucky · −51 Leeds

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Leeds win 4, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 3.

  1. 1 LEE 2 AVL 1
  2. 2 LEE 1 AVL 0
  3. 3 LEE 2 AVL 0
  4. 4 LEE 5 AVL 2
  5. 5 LEE 2 AVL 2
  6. 6 LEE 1 AVL 1
  7. 7 LEE 2 AVL 2
  8. 8 LEE 0 AVL 3
  9. 9 LEE 1 AVL 2
  10. 10 LEE 0 AVL 1

The goals

Leeds’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Leeds was ahead in it, below while Aston Villa was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 8' Lukas Nmecha (Leeds) 1–0 +23% Leeds
2. 48' Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa) 1–1 +30% Aston Villa
3. 75' Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa) 1–2 +42% Aston Villa

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Aston Villa win 49% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 12 matches, 2025-26 · Leeds · Aston Villa

More from matchday 12, 2025-26

Every match of matchday 12, 2025-26