Matchday 12 · Premier League 2025-26 · November 22, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Bournemouth 2–2 West Ham: lucky or expected?
Bournemouth and West Ham drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Bournemouth win 6 of 10, West Ham 2, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Bournemouth were expected to score 2.0 here and West Ham 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 2 |
 West Ham United | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index −18 Bournemouth about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 6, 2 end level, West Ham win 2.
- 1 BOU 1 WHU 0
- 2 BOU 1 WHU 0
- 3 BOU 2 WHU 0
- 4 BOU 2 WHU 0
- 5 BOU 4 WHU 1
- 6 BOU 5 WHU 1
- 7 BOU 1 WHU 1
- 8 BOU 1 WHU 1
- 9 BOU 0 WHU 2
- 10 BOU 2 WHU 3
The goals
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
As low as 2% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 11' | Callum Wilson (West Ham) | 0–1 | +25% West Ham |
| 2. 35' | Callum Wilson (West Ham) | 0–2 | +17% West Ham |
| 3. 69' | Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth, penalty) | 1–2 | +12% Bournemouth |
| 4. 81' | Enes Unal (Bournemouth) | 2–2 | +45% Bournemouth |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 12, 2025-26
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- Liverpool 0–3 Forest Nov 22, 2025 · replay 36% for Forest
- Wolves 0–2 Crystal Palace Nov 22, 2025 · replay 60% for Crystal Palace
- Fulham 1–0 Sunderland Nov 22, 2025 · replay 57% for Fulham
- Brighton 2–1 Brentford Nov 22, 2025 · replay 58% for Brighton
- Newcastle 2–1 Man City Nov 22, 2025 · replay 35% for Newcastle
- Leeds 1–2 Aston Villa Nov 23, 2025 · replay 49% for Aston Villa
- Arsenal 4–1 Tottenham Nov 23, 2025 · replay 82% for Arsenal
- Man United 0–1 Everton Nov 24, 2025 · replay 32% for Everton