Matchday 13 · Premier League 2025-26 · November 29, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Everton 1–4 Newcastle: lucky or expected?
Newcastle beat Everton 4–1, but the goals lean toward Everton: 4 wins in 10 to Newcastle’s 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Everton were expected to score 1.5 here and Newcastle 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Everton | 1 |
 Newcastle United | 4 |
What the goals say
Luck index +56 Newcastle lucky · −56 Everton
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 4, 3 end level, Newcastle win 3.
- 1 EVE 2 NEW 1
- 2 EVE 2 NEW 1
- 3 EVE 3 NEW 1
- 4 EVE 3 NEW 0
- 5 EVE 1 NEW 1
- 6 EVE 1 NEW 1
- 7 EVE 3 NEW 3
- 8 EVE 0 NEW 2
- 9 EVE 0 NEW 1
- 10 EVE 1 NEW 2
The goals
Everton’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 1' | Malick Thiaw (Newcastle) | 0–1 | +24% Newcastle |
| 2. 25' | Lewis Miley (Newcastle) | 0–2 | +18% Newcastle |
| 3. 45' | Nick Woltemade (Newcastle) | 0–3 | +5% Newcastle |
| 4. 58' | Malick Thiaw (Newcastle) | 0–4 | +1% Newcastle |
| 5. 69' | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (Everton) | 1–4 | +0% Everton |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Newcastle win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 13, 2025-26
- Sunderland 3–2 Bournemouth Nov 29, 2025 · replay 52% for Sunderland
- Man City 3–2 Leeds Nov 29, 2025 · replay 78% for Man City
- Brentford 3–1 Burnley Nov 29, 2025 · replay 75% for Brentford
- Tottenham 1–2 Fulham Nov 29, 2025 · replay 46% for Fulham
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Man United Nov 30, 2025 · replay 59% for Man United
- West Ham 0–2 Liverpool Nov 30, 2025 · replay 58% for Liverpool
- Aston Villa 1–0 Wolves Nov 30, 2025 · replay 80% for Aston Villa
- Forest 0–2 Brighton Nov 30, 2025 · replay 49% for Brighton
- Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal Nov 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws