Matchday 13 · Premier League 2025-26 · November 30, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Crystal Palace 1–2 Man United: lucky or expected?
Man United beat Crystal Palace 2–1, and the goals lean Man United’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Crystal Palace, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Crystal Palace were expected to score 1.2 here and Man United 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 1 |
 Manchester United | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +41 Man United lucky · −41 Crystal Palace
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 3, 3 end level, Man United win 4.
- 1 CRY 1 MUN 0
- 2 CRY 2 MUN 0
- 3 CRY 3 MUN 0
- 4 CRY 0 MUN 0
- 5 CRY 1 MUN 1
- 6 CRY 2 MUN 2
- 7 CRY 0 MUN 3
- 8 CRY 1 MUN 3
- 9 CRY 1 MUN 2
- 10 CRY 1 MUN 2
The goals
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 36' | Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace, penalty) | 1–0 | +27% Crystal Palace |
| 2. 54' | Joshua Zirkzee (Man United) | 1–1 | +31% Man United |
| 3. 63' | Mason Mount (Man United) | 1–2 | +37% Man United |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man United win 59% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 13 matches, 2025-26 · 
Crystal Palace · 
Man United
More from matchday 13, 2025-26
- Sunderland 3–2 Bournemouth Nov 29, 2025 · replay 52% for Sunderland
- Man City 3–2 Leeds Nov 29, 2025 · replay 78% for Man City
- Brentford 3–1 Burnley Nov 29, 2025 · replay 75% for Brentford
- Everton 1–4 Newcastle Nov 29, 2025 · replay 44% for Newcastle
- Tottenham 1–2 Fulham Nov 29, 2025 · replay 46% for Fulham
- West Ham 0–2 Liverpool Nov 30, 2025 · replay 58% for Liverpool
- Aston Villa 1–0 Wolves Nov 30, 2025 · replay 80% for Aston Villa
- Forest 0–2 Brighton Nov 30, 2025 · replay 49% for Brighton
- Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal Nov 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws