Matchday 13 · Premier League 2025-26 · November 29, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man City 3–2 Leeds: lucky or expected?
Man City beat Leeds 3–2, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Man City win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man City were expected to score 2.2 here and Leeds 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester City | 3 |
 Leeds United | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +22 Man City about even · −22 Leeds
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 7, 2 end level, Leeds win 1.
- 1 MCI 1 LEE 0
- 2 MCI 1 LEE 0
- 3 MCI 3 LEE 1
- 4 MCI 2 LEE 0
- 5 MCI 3 LEE 0
- 6 MCI 3 LEE 0
- 7 MCI 6 LEE 1
- 8 MCI 1 LEE 1
- 9 MCI 1 LEE 1
- 10 MCI 1 LEE 2
The goals
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 1' | Phil Foden (Man City) | 1–0 | +22% Man City |
| 2. 25' | Josko Gvardiol (Man City) | 2–0 | +13% Man City |
| 3. 49' | Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds) | 2–1 | +12% Leeds |
| 4. 68' | Lukas Nmecha (Leeds) | 2–2 | +37% Leeds |
| 90+1' | Phil Foden (Man City) | 3–2 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man City win 78% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 13, 2025-26
- Sunderland 3–2 Bournemouth Nov 29, 2025 · replay 52% for Sunderland
- Brentford 3–1 Burnley Nov 29, 2025 · replay 75% for Brentford
- Everton 1–4 Newcastle Nov 29, 2025 · replay 44% for Newcastle
- Tottenham 1–2 Fulham Nov 29, 2025 · replay 46% for Fulham
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Man United Nov 30, 2025 · replay 59% for Man United
- West Ham 0–2 Liverpool Nov 30, 2025 · replay 58% for Liverpool
- Aston Villa 1–0 Wolves Nov 30, 2025 · replay 80% for Aston Villa
- Forest 0–2 Brighton Nov 30, 2025 · replay 49% for Brighton
- Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal Nov 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws