Matchday 15 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 6, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Everton 3–0 Forest: lucky or expected?
Everton beat Forest 3–0, and the goals lean Everton’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Forest, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Everton were expected to score 1.4 here and Forest 1.0. An own goal helped Everton.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Everton | 3 |
 Nottingham Forest | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +42 Everton lucky · −42 Forest
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 4, 3 end level, Forest win 3.
- 1 EVE 1 NFO 0
- 2 EVE 2 NFO 1
- 3 EVE 2 NFO 0
- 4 EVE 4 NFO 1
- 5 EVE 1 NFO 1
- 6 EVE 2 NFO 2
- 7 EVE 1 NFO 1
- 8 EVE 0 NFO 2
- 9 EVE 0 NFO 1
- 10 EVE 2 NFO 3
The goals
Everton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 2' | Nikola Milenkovic (Everton, own goal) | 1–0 | +22% Everton |
| 2. 45+3' | Thierno Barry (Everton) | 2–0 | +12% Everton |
| 3. 80' | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (Everton) | 3–0 | +0% Everton |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Everton win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 15, 2025-26
- Aston Villa 2–1 Arsenal Dec 6, 2025 · replay 38% for Aston Villa
- Bournemouth 0–0 Chelsea Dec 6, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Man City 3–0 Sunderland Dec 6, 2025 · replay 79% for Man City
- Tottenham 2–0 Brentford Dec 6, 2025 · replay 50% for Tottenham
- Newcastle 2–1 Burnley Dec 6, 2025 · replay 73% for Newcastle
- Leeds 3–3 Liverpool Dec 6, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Brighton 1–1 West Ham Dec 7, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Fulham 1–2 Crystal Palace Dec 7, 2025 · replay 39% for Crystal Palace
- Wolves 1–4 Man United Dec 8, 2025 · replay 73% for Man United