Matchday 15 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 6, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man City 3–0 Sunderland: lucky or expected?
Man City beat Sunderland 3–0, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Man City win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man City were expected to score 2.0 here and Sunderland 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester City | 3 |
 Sunderland | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +21 Man City about even · −21 Sunderland
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 7, 2 end level, Sunderland win 1.
- 1 MCI 1 SUN 0
- 2 MCI 2 SUN 1
- 3 MCI 1 SUN 0
- 4 MCI 2 SUN 0
- 5 MCI 2 SUN 0
- 6 MCI 5 SUN 2
- 7 MCI 5 SUN 1
- 8 MCI 1 SUN 1
- 9 MCI 1 SUN 1
- 10 MCI 0 SUN 1
The goals
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 31' | Ruben Dias (Man City) | 1–0 | +26% Man City |
| 2. 35' | Josko Gvardiol (Man City) | 2–0 | +13% Man City |
| 3. 65' | Phil Foden (Man City) | 3–0 | +2% Man City |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man City win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 15, 2025-26
- Aston Villa 2–1 Arsenal Dec 6, 2025 · replay 38% for Aston Villa
- Bournemouth 0–0 Chelsea Dec 6, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Everton 3–0 Forest Dec 6, 2025 · replay 58% for Everton
- Tottenham 2–0 Brentford Dec 6, 2025 · replay 50% for Tottenham
- Newcastle 2–1 Burnley Dec 6, 2025 · replay 73% for Newcastle
- Leeds 3–3 Liverpool Dec 6, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Brighton 1–1 West Ham Dec 7, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Fulham 1–2 Crystal Palace Dec 7, 2025 · replay 39% for Crystal Palace
- Wolves 1–4 Man United Dec 8, 2025 · replay 73% for Man United