Matchday 15 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 6, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Leeds 3–3 Liverpool: lucky or expected?
Leeds and Liverpool drew 3–3. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Leeds win 4 of 10, Liverpool 3, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leeds were expected to score 1.5 here and Liverpool 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Leeds United | 3 |
 Liverpool | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +1 Leeds about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Leeds win 4, 3 end level, Liverpool win 3.
- 1 LEE 1 LIV 0
- 2 LEE 1 LIV 0
- 3 LEE 3 LIV 1
- 4 LEE 3 LIV 0
- 5 LEE 1 LIV 1
- 6 LEE 2 LIV 2
- 7 LEE 1 LIV 1
- 8 LEE 2 LIV 5
- 9 LEE 1 LIV 2
- 10 LEE 1 LIV 2
The goals
Leeds’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 48' | Hugo Ekitike (Liverpool) | 0–1 | +32% Liverpool |
| 2. 50' | Hugo Ekitike (Liverpool) | 0–2 | +16% Liverpool |
| 3. 73' | Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds, penalty) | 1–2 | +10% Leeds |
| 4. 75' | Anton Stach (Leeds) | 2–2 | +42% Leeds |
| 5. 80' | Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool) | 2–3 | +44% Liverpool |
| 90+6' | Ao Tanaka (Leeds) | 3–3 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 15, 2025-26
- Aston Villa 2–1 Arsenal Dec 6, 2025 · replay 38% for Aston Villa
- Bournemouth 0–0 Chelsea Dec 6, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Man City 3–0 Sunderland Dec 6, 2025 · replay 79% for Man City
- Everton 3–0 Forest Dec 6, 2025 · replay 58% for Everton
- Tottenham 2–0 Brentford Dec 6, 2025 · replay 50% for Tottenham
- Newcastle 2–1 Burnley Dec 6, 2025 · replay 73% for Newcastle
- Brighton 1–1 West Ham Dec 7, 2025 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Fulham 1–2 Crystal Palace Dec 7, 2025 · replay 39% for Crystal Palace
- Wolves 1–4 Man United Dec 8, 2025 · replay 73% for Man United