Matchday 18 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 27, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Arsenal 2–1 Brighton: lucky or expected?
Arsenal beat Brighton 2–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Arsenal win 6 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Arsenal were expected to score 1.8 here and Brighton 0.6. An own goal helped Arsenal.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Arsenal | 2 |
 Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +24 Arsenal about even · −24 Brighton
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 6, 2 end level, Brighton win 2.
- 1 ARS 1 BHA 0
- 2 ARS 2 BHA 1
- 3 ARS 2 BHA 1
- 4 ARS 4 BHA 2
- 5 ARS 2 BHA 0
- 6 ARS 4 BHA 1
- 7 ARS 1 BHA 1
- 8 ARS 1 BHA 1
- 9 ARS 2 BHA 3
- 10 ARS 0 BHA 1
The goals
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 14' | Martin Odegaard (Arsenal) | 1–0 | +23% Arsenal |
| 2. 52' | Georginio Rutter (Arsenal, own goal) | 2–0 | +12% Arsenal |
| 3. 64' | Diego Gomez (Brighton) | 2–1 | +10% Brighton |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Arsenal win 76% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 18, 2025-26
- Man United 1–0 Newcastle Dec 26, 2025 · replay 67% for Man United
- Forest 1–2 Man City Dec 27, 2025 · replay 67% for Man City
- West Ham 0–1 Fulham Dec 27, 2025 · replay 51% for Fulham
- Brentford 4–1 Bournemouth Dec 27, 2025 · replay 55% for Brentford
- Liverpool 2–1 Wolves Dec 27, 2025 · replay 80% for Liverpool
- Burnley 0–0 Everton Dec 27, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Chelsea 1–2 Aston Villa Dec 27, 2025 · replay 44% for Aston Villa
- Sunderland 1–1 Leeds Dec 28, 2025 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Tottenham Dec 28, 2025 · replay 43% for Tottenham