luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 18 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 27, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Chelsea 1–2 Aston Villa: lucky or expected?

Aston Villa beat Chelsea 2–1, but the goals lean toward Chelsea: 4 wins in 10 to Aston Villa’s 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Chelsea were expected to score 1.6 here and Aston Villa 1.3.

Full time

Goals
Chelsea 1
Aston Villa 2

December 27, 2025

Luck index +56 Aston Villa lucky · −56 Chelsea

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Chelsea win 4, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 3.

  1. 1 CHE 2 AVL 1
  2. 2 CHE 3 AVL 2
  3. 3 CHE 3 AVL 1
  4. 4 CHE 3 AVL 0
  5. 5 CHE 2 AVL 2
  6. 6 CHE 2 AVL 2
  7. 7 CHE 0 AVL 0
  8. 8 CHE 1 AVL 3
  9. 9 CHE 2 AVL 3
  10. 10 CHE 1 AVL 2

The goals

Chelsea’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Chelsea was ahead in it, below while Aston Villa was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 37' Joao Pedro (Chelsea) 1–0 +27% Chelsea
2. 63' Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) 1–1 +35% Aston Villa
3. 84' Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) 1–2 +46% Aston Villa

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Aston Villa win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 18 matches, 2025-26 · Chelsea · Aston Villa

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