Matchday 18 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 27, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Forest 1–2 Man City: lucky or expected?
Man City beat Forest 2–1, and the goals lean Man City’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Forest, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Forest were expected to score 1.0 here and Man City 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Nottingham Forest | 1 |
 Manchester City | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +33 Man City lucky · −33 Forest
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Forest win 2, 2 end level, Man City win 6.
- 1 NFO 2 MCI 1
- 2 NFO 2 MCI 0
- 3 NFO 0 MCI 0
- 4 NFO 1 MCI 1
- 5 NFO 0 MCI 4
- 6 NFO 0 MCI 3
- 7 NFO 0 MCI 2
- 8 NFO 0 MCI 2
- 9 NFO 1 MCI 2
- 10 NFO 1 MCI 2
The goals
Forest’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 48' | Tijjani Reijnders (Man City) | 0–1 | +32% Man City |
| 2. 54' | Omari Hutchinson (Forest) | 1–1 | +34% Forest |
| 3. 83' | Rayan Cherki (Man City) | 1–2 | +46% Man City |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man City win 67% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 18, 2025-26
- Man United 1–0 Newcastle Dec 26, 2025 · replay 67% for Man United
- West Ham 0–1 Fulham Dec 27, 2025 · replay 51% for Fulham
- Brentford 4–1 Bournemouth Dec 27, 2025 · replay 55% for Brentford
- Arsenal 2–1 Brighton Dec 27, 2025 · replay 76% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 2–1 Wolves Dec 27, 2025 · replay 80% for Liverpool
- Burnley 0–0 Everton Dec 27, 2025 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Chelsea 1–2 Aston Villa Dec 27, 2025 · replay 44% for Aston Villa
- Sunderland 1–1 Leeds Dec 28, 2025 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Tottenham Dec 28, 2025 · replay 43% for Tottenham