luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 18 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 27, 2025

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Brentford 4–1 Bournemouth: lucky or expected?

Brentford beat Bournemouth 4–1, and the goals lean Brentford’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Bournemouth, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Brentford were expected to score 1.6 here and Bournemouth 1.4. An own goal helped Brentford.

Full time

Goals
Brentford 4
AFC Bournemouth 1

December 27, 2025

Luck index +45 Brentford lucky · −45 Bournemouth

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Brentford win 4, 3 end level, Bournemouth win 3.

  1. 1 BRE 2 BOU 1
  2. 2 BRE 1 BOU 0
  3. 3 BRE 3 BOU 1
  4. 4 BRE 3 BOU 0
  5. 5 BRE 0 BOU 0
  6. 6 BRE 1 BOU 1
  7. 7 BRE 0 BOU 0
  8. 8 BRE 0 BOU 2
  9. 9 BRE 0 BOU 1
  10. 10 BRE 1 BOU 2

The goals

Brentford’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Brentford was ahead in it, below while Bournemouth was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 7' Kevin Schade (Brentford) 1–0 +22% Brentford
2. 39' Djordje Petrovic (Brentford, own goal) 2–0 +13% Brentford
3. 51' Kevin Schade (Brentford) 3–0 +3% Brentford
4. 75' Antoine Semenyo (Bournemouth) 3–1 +1% Bournemouth
90+6' Kevin Schade (Brentford) 4–1

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Brentford win 55% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 18 matches, 2025-26 · Brentford · Bournemouth

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