luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 20 · Premier League 2025-26 · January 3, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Aston Villa 3–1 Forest: lucky or expected?

Aston Villa beat Forest 3–1, and the goals lean Aston Villa’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Forest, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Aston Villa were expected to score 1.6 here and Forest 1.0.

Full time

Goals
Aston Villa 3
Nottingham Forest 1

January 3, 2026

Luck index +37 Aston Villa lucky · −37 Forest

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Aston Villa win 5, 3 end level, Forest win 2.

  1. 1 AVL 1 NFO 0
  2. 2 AVL 1 NFO 0
  3. 3 AVL 4 NFO 2
  4. 4 AVL 3 NFO 1
  5. 5 AVL 3 NFO 0
  6. 6 AVL 1 NFO 1
  7. 7 AVL 1 NFO 1
  8. 8 AVL 1 NFO 1
  9. 9 AVL 1 NFO 3
  10. 10 AVL 1 NFO 2

The goals

Aston Villa’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Aston Villa was ahead in it, below while Forest was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 45+1' Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) 1–0 +29% Aston Villa
2. 49' John McGinn (Aston Villa) 2–0 +12% Aston Villa
3. 61' Morgan Gibbs White (Forest) 2–1 +11% Forest
4. 73' John McGinn (Aston Villa) 3–1 +8% Aston Villa

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Aston Villa win 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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