luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 20 · Premier League 2025-26 · January 4, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Leeds 1–1 Man United: lucky or expected?

Leeds and Man United drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Leeds win 3 of 10, Man United 4, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leeds were expected to score 1.4 here and Man United 1.7.

Full time

Goals
Leeds United 1
Manchester United 1

January 4, 2026

Luck index +5 Leeds about even for the draw

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Leeds win 3, 3 end level, Man United win 4.

  1. 1 LEE 2 MUN 1
  2. 2 LEE 2 MUN 1
  3. 3 LEE 2 MUN 0
  4. 4 LEE 1 MUN 1
  5. 5 LEE 2 MUN 2
  6. 6 LEE 1 MUN 1
  7. 7 LEE 3 MUN 6
  8. 8 LEE 2 MUN 4
  9. 9 LEE 1 MUN 2
  10. 10 LEE 1 MUN 2

The goals

Leeds’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Leeds was ahead in it, below while Man United was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 62' Brenden Aaronson (Leeds) 1–0 +34% Leeds
2. 65' Matheus Cunha (Man United) 1–1 +35% Man United

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.

All matchday 20 matches, 2025-26 · Leeds · Man United

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