Matchday 20 · Premier League 2025-26 · January 3, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Wolves 3–0 West Ham: lucky or expected?
Wolves beat West Ham 3–0, but the goals call it even: Wolves win 3 of 10, West Ham 4, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Wolves were expected to score 1.2 here and West Ham 1.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 |
 West Ham United | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +54 Wolves lucky · −54 West Ham
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Wolves win 3, 3 end level, West Ham win 4.
- 1 WOL 2 WHU 1
- 2 WOL 1 WHU 0
- 3 WOL 3 WHU 1
- 4 WOL 1 WHU 1
- 5 WOL 2 WHU 2
- 6 WOL 1 WHU 1
- 7 WOL 0 WHU 3
- 8 WOL 0 WHU 2
- 9 WOL 0 WHU 1
- 10 WOL 1 WHU 2
The goals
Wolves’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 4' | Jhon Arias (Wolves) | 1–0 | +22% Wolves |
| 2. 31' | Hwang Heechan (Wolves, penalty) | 2–0 | +13% Wolves |
| 3. 41' | Mateus Mané (Wolves) | 3–0 | +4% Wolves |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Wolves win 46% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 20, 2025-26
- Aston Villa 3–1 Forest Jan 3, 2026 · replay 63% for Aston Villa
- Brighton 2–0 Burnley Jan 3, 2026 · replay 77% for Brighton
- Bournemouth 2–3 Arsenal Jan 3, 2026 · replay 63% for Arsenal
- Leeds 1–1 Man United Jan 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Tottenham 1–1 Sunderland Jan 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Newcastle 2–0 Crystal Palace Jan 4, 2026 · replay 61% for Newcastle
- Everton 2–4 Brentford Jan 4, 2026 · replay 46% for Brentford
- Fulham 2–2 Liverpool Jan 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Man City 1–1 Chelsea Jan 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 21% draws