luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 22 · Premier League 2025-26 · January 17, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Forest 0–0 Arsenal: lucky or expected?

Forest and Arsenal drew 0–0. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Forest win 2 of 10, Arsenal 5, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Forest were expected to score 0.8 here and Arsenal 1.6.

Full time

Goals
Nottingham Forest 0
Arsenal 0

January 17, 2026

Luck index +19 Forest about even for the draw

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Forest win 2, 3 end level, Arsenal win 5.

  1. 1 NFO 2 ARS 1
  2. 2 NFO 2 ARS 0
  3. 3 NFO 0 ARS 0
  4. 4 NFO 1 ARS 1
  5. 5 NFO 1 ARS 1
  6. 6 NFO 0 ARS 3
  7. 7 NFO 0 ARS 2
  8. 8 NFO 0 ARS 2
  9. 9 NFO 0 ARS 1
  10. 10 NFO 1 ARS 2

The goals

No goals: Forest and Arsenal drew 0–0, and the replay above is of that scoreline’s chance (31% for Forest, draws counted half).

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.

All matchday 22 matches, 2025-26 · Forest · Arsenal

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