Matchday 22 · Premier League 2025-26 · January 17, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Chelsea 2–0 Brentford: lucky or expected?
Chelsea beat Brentford 2–0, and the goals lean Chelsea’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Brentford, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Chelsea were expected to score 1.7 here and Brentford 1.3.
What the goals say
Luck index +42 Chelsea lucky · −42 Brentford
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 4, 3 end level, Brentford win 3.
- 1 CHE 2 BRE 1
- 2 CHE 1 BRE 0
- 3 CHE 2 BRE 0
- 4 CHE 4 BRE 1
- 5 CHE 3 BRE 3
- 6 CHE 3 BRE 3
- 7 CHE 1 BRE 1
- 8 CHE 0 BRE 2
- 9 CHE 1 BRE 3
- 10 CHE 1 BRE 2
The goals
Chelsea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 26' | Joao Pedro (Chelsea) | 1–0 | +25% Chelsea |
| 2. 76' | Cole Palmer (Chelsea, penalty) | 2–0 | +7% Chelsea |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Chelsea win 58% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 22, 2025-26
- Man United 2–0 Man City Jan 17, 2026 · replay 46% for Man United
- Tottenham 1–2 West Ham Jan 17, 2026 · replay 38% for West Ham
- Leeds 1–0 Fulham Jan 17, 2026 · replay 57% for Leeds
- Sunderland 2–1 Crystal Palace Jan 17, 2026 · replay 61% for Sunderland
- Liverpool 1–1 Burnley Jan 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 19% draws
- Forest 0–0 Arsenal Jan 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Wolves 0–0 Newcastle Jan 18, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Aston Villa 0–1 Everton Jan 18, 2026 · replay 38% for Everton
- Brighton 1–1 Bournemouth Jan 19, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws