luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 22 · Premier League 2025-26 · January 17, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Leeds 1–0 Fulham: lucky or expected?

Leeds beat Fulham 1–0, and the goals lean Leeds’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Fulham, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Leeds were expected to score 1.4 here and Fulham 1.1.

Full time

Goals
Leeds United 1
Fulham 0

January 17, 2026

Luck index +43 Leeds lucky · −43 Fulham

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Leeds win 4, 3 end level, Fulham win 3.

  1. 1 LEE 1 FUL 0
  2. 2 LEE 1 FUL 0
  3. 3 LEE 3 FUL 1
  4. 4 LEE 3 FUL 0
  5. 5 LEE 1 FUL 1
  6. 6 LEE 1 FUL 1
  7. 7 LEE 1 FUL 1
  8. 8 LEE 2 FUL 4
  9. 9 LEE 0 FUL 1
  10. 10 LEE 2 FUL 3

The goals

MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
90+1' Lukas Nmecha (Leeds) 1–0

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Leeds win 57% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 22 matches, 2025-26 · Leeds · Fulham

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