Matchday 22 · Premier League 2025-26 · January 17, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Liverpool 1–1 Burnley: lucky or expected?
Liverpool and Burnley drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Liverpool win 7 of 10, Burnley 1, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Liverpool were expected to score 2.4 here and Burnley 0.9.
What the goals say
Luck index −27 Liverpool unlucky for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 7, 2 end level, Burnley win 1.
- 1 LIV 4 BUR 3
- 2 LIV 1 BUR 0
- 3 LIV 2 BUR 0
- 4 LIV 3 BUR 1
- 5 LIV 3 BUR 0
- 6 LIV 4 BUR 0
- 7 LIV 6 BUR 1
- 8 LIV 2 BUR 2
- 9 LIV 3 BUR 3
- 10 LIV 0 BUR 1
The goals
Liverpool’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 42' | Florian Wirtz (Liverpool) | 1–0 | +28% Liverpool |
| 2. 65' | Marcus Edwards (Burnley) | 1–1 | +35% Burnley |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 22, 2025-26
- Man United 2–0 Man City Jan 17, 2026 · replay 46% for Man United
- Tottenham 1–2 West Ham Jan 17, 2026 · replay 38% for West Ham
- Leeds 1–0 Fulham Jan 17, 2026 · replay 57% for Leeds
- Chelsea 2–0 Brentford Jan 17, 2026 · replay 58% for Chelsea
- Sunderland 2–1 Crystal Palace Jan 17, 2026 · replay 61% for Sunderland
- Forest 0–0 Arsenal Jan 17, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Wolves 0–0 Newcastle Jan 18, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Aston Villa 0–1 Everton Jan 18, 2026 · replay 38% for Everton
- Brighton 1–1 Bournemouth Jan 19, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws