Matchday 23 · Premier League 2025-26 · January 24, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Fulham 2–1 Brighton: lucky or expected?
Fulham beat Brighton 2–1, but the goals call it even: Fulham win 4 of 10, Brighton 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Fulham were expected to score 1.2 here and Brighton 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Fulham | 2 |
 Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +49 Fulham lucky · −49 Brighton
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Fulham win 4, 3 end level, Brighton win 3.
- 1 FUL 2 BHA 1
- 2 FUL 1 BHA 0
- 3 FUL 2 BHA 0
- 4 FUL 3 BHA 0
- 5 FUL 1 BHA 1
- 6 FUL 1 BHA 1
- 7 FUL 2 BHA 2
- 8 FUL 0 BHA 2
- 9 FUL 0 BHA 1
- 10 FUL 0 BHA 1
The goals
Fulham’s chance of winning
As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 28' | Yasin Ayari (Brighton) | 0–1 | +28% Brighton |
| 2. 72' | Samuel Chukwueze (Fulham) | 1–1 | +40% Fulham |
| 90+2' | Harry Wilson (Fulham) | 2–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Fulham win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 23, 2025-26
- West Ham 3–1 Sunderland Jan 24, 2026 · replay 49% for West Ham
- Man City 2–0 Wolves Jan 24, 2026 · replay 92% for Man City
- Burnley 2–2 Tottenham Jan 24, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Bournemouth 3–2 Liverpool Jan 24, 2026 · replay 54% for Bournemouth
- Brentford 0–2 Forest Jan 25, 2026 · replay 39% for Forest
- Newcastle 0–2 Aston Villa Jan 25, 2026 · replay 48% for Aston Villa
- Crystal Palace 1–3 Chelsea Jan 25, 2026 · replay 51% for Chelsea
- Arsenal 2–3 Man United Jan 25, 2026 · replay 32% for Man United
- Everton 1–1 Leeds Jan 26, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws