Matchday 23 · Premier League 2025-26 · January 25, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Arsenal 2–3 Man United: lucky or expected?
Man United beat Arsenal 3–2, but the goals lean toward Arsenal: 6 wins in 10 to Man United’s 2, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Arsenal were expected to score 1.9 here and Man United 1.1. An own goal helped Arsenal.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Arsenal | 2 |
 Manchester United | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +68 Man United very lucky · −68 Arsenal
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 6, 2 end level, Man United win 2.
- 1 ARS 1 MUN 0
- 2 ARS 2 MUN 1
- 3 ARS 2 MUN 1
- 4 ARS 3 MUN 1
- 5 ARS 4 MUN 2
- 6 ARS 5 MUN 1
- 7 ARS 0 MUN 0
- 8 ARS 1 MUN 1
- 9 ARS 0 MUN 2
- 10 ARS 1 MUN 2
The goals
Arsenal’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 29' | Lisandro Martinez (Arsenal, own goal) | 1–0 | +26% Arsenal |
| 2. 37' | Bryan Mbeumo (Man United) | 1–1 | +27% Man United |
| 3. 50' | Patrick Dorgu (Man United) | 1–2 | +33% Man United |
| 4. 84' | Mikel Merino (Arsenal) | 2–2 | +46% Arsenal |
| 5. 87' | Matheus Cunha (Man United) | 2–3 | +48% Man United |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man United win 32% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 23, 2025-26
- West Ham 3–1 Sunderland Jan 24, 2026 · replay 49% for West Ham
- Man City 2–0 Wolves Jan 24, 2026 · replay 92% for Man City
- Fulham 2–1 Brighton Jan 24, 2026 · replay 51% for Fulham
- Burnley 2–2 Tottenham Jan 24, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Bournemouth 3–2 Liverpool Jan 24, 2026 · replay 54% for Bournemouth
- Brentford 0–2 Forest Jan 25, 2026 · replay 39% for Forest
- Newcastle 0–2 Aston Villa Jan 25, 2026 · replay 48% for Aston Villa
- Crystal Palace 1–3 Chelsea Jan 25, 2026 · replay 51% for Chelsea
- Everton 1–1 Leeds Jan 26, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws