luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 23 · Premier League 2025-26 · January 25, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Newcastle 0–2 Aston Villa: lucky or expected?

Aston Villa beat Newcastle 2–0, but the goals call it even: Aston Villa win 3 of 10, Newcastle 4, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Newcastle were expected to score 1.5 here and Aston Villa 1.4.

Full time

Goals
Newcastle United 0
Aston Villa 2

January 25, 2026

Luck index +52 Aston Villa lucky · −52 Newcastle

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Newcastle win 4, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 3.

  1. 1 NEW 2 AVL 1
  2. 2 NEW 1 AVL 0
  3. 3 NEW 2 AVL 0
  4. 4 NEW 3 AVL 0
  5. 5 NEW 1 AVL 1
  6. 6 NEW 1 AVL 1
  7. 7 NEW 1 AVL 1
  8. 8 NEW 0 AVL 2
  9. 9 NEW 1 AVL 2
  10. 10 NEW 2 AVL 3

The goals

Newcastle’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Newcastle was ahead in it, below while Aston Villa was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 19' Emiliano Buendia (Aston Villa) 0–1 +26% Aston Villa
2. 88' Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) 0–2 +2% Aston Villa

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Aston Villa win 48% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 23 matches, 2025-26 · Newcastle · Aston Villa

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