Matchday 23 · Premier League 2025-26 · January 24, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
West Ham 3–1 Sunderland: lucky or expected?
West Ham beat Sunderland 3–1, but the goals call it even: West Ham win 3 of 10, Sunderland 4, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, West Ham were expected to score 1.2 here and Sunderland 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 West Ham United | 3 |
 Sunderland | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +51 West Ham lucky · −51 Sunderland
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 3, 3 end level, Sunderland win 4.
- 1 WHU 2 SUN 1
- 2 WHU 2 SUN 1
- 3 WHU 3 SUN 1
- 4 WHU 1 SUN 1
- 5 WHU 1 SUN 1
- 6 WHU 0 SUN 0
- 7 WHU 0 SUN 2
- 8 WHU 0 SUN 1
- 9 WHU 0 SUN 1
- 10 WHU 2 SUN 3
The goals
West Ham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 14' | Crysencio Summerville (West Ham) | 1–0 | +23% West Ham |
| 2. 28' | Jarrod Bowen (West Ham, penalty) | 2–0 | +13% West Ham |
| 3. 43' | Mateus Fernandes (West Ham) | 3–0 | +3% West Ham |
| 4. 66' | Brian Brobbey (Sunderland) | 3–1 | +1% Sunderland |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. West Ham win 49% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 23, 2025-26
- Man City 2–0 Wolves Jan 24, 2026 · replay 92% for Man City
- Fulham 2–1 Brighton Jan 24, 2026 · replay 51% for Fulham
- Burnley 2–2 Tottenham Jan 24, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Bournemouth 3–2 Liverpool Jan 24, 2026 · replay 54% for Bournemouth
- Brentford 0–2 Forest Jan 25, 2026 · replay 39% for Forest
- Newcastle 0–2 Aston Villa Jan 25, 2026 · replay 48% for Aston Villa
- Crystal Palace 1–3 Chelsea Jan 25, 2026 · replay 51% for Chelsea
- Arsenal 2–3 Man United Jan 25, 2026 · replay 32% for Man United
- Everton 1–1 Leeds Jan 26, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws