Matchday 28 · Premier League 2025-26 · March 1, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Brighton 2–1 Forest: lucky or expected?
Brighton beat Forest 2–1, and the goals lean Brighton’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Forest, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Brighton were expected to score 1.5 here and Forest 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Brighton & Hove Albion | 2 |
 Nottingham Forest | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +37 Brighton lucky · −37 Forest
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Brighton win 5, 3 end level, Forest win 2.
- 1 BHA 1 NFO 0
- 2 BHA 1 NFO 0
- 3 BHA 2 NFO 1
- 4 BHA 2 NFO 0
- 5 BHA 4 NFO 1
- 6 BHA 0 NFO 0
- 7 BHA 1 NFO 1
- 8 BHA 1 NFO 1
- 9 BHA 0 NFO 2
- 10 BHA 0 NFO 1
The goals
Brighton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 6' | Diego Gomez (Brighton) | 1–0 | +22% Brighton |
| 2. 13' | Morgan Gibbs White (Forest) | 1–1 | +23% Forest |
| 3. 15' | Danny Welbeck (Brighton) | 2–1 | +23% Brighton |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Brighton win 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 28, 2025-26
- Wolves 2–0 Aston Villa Feb 27, 2026 · replay 32% for Wolves
- Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland Feb 28, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Burnley 3–4 Brentford Feb 28, 2026 · replay 64% for Brentford
- Liverpool 5–2 West Ham Feb 28, 2026 · replay 70% for Liverpool
- Newcastle 2–3 Everton Feb 28, 2026 · replay 43% for Everton
- Leeds 0–1 Man City Feb 28, 2026 · replay 66% for Man City
- Man United 2–1 Crystal Palace Mar 1, 2026 · replay 72% for Man United
- Fulham 2–1 Tottenham Mar 1, 2026 · replay 60% for Fulham
- Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea Mar 1, 2026 · replay 75% for Arsenal