luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 28 · Premier League 2025-26 · March 1, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea: lucky or expected?

Arsenal beat Chelsea 2–1, and the goals back it up: from both teams’ goals this season, Arsenal win 6 of 10, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Arsenal were expected to score 2.0 here and Chelsea 0.8. An own goal helped Chelsea.

Full time

Goals
Arsenal 2
Chelsea 1

March 1, 2026

Luck index +25 Arsenal about even · −25 Chelsea

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Arsenal win 6, 2 end level, Chelsea win 2.

  1. 1 ARS 2 CHE 1
  2. 2 ARS 3 CHE 2
  3. 3 ARS 4 CHE 2
  4. 4 ARS 2 CHE 0
  5. 5 ARS 3 CHE 0
  6. 6 ARS 4 CHE 0
  7. 7 ARS 0 CHE 0
  8. 8 ARS 2 CHE 2
  9. 9 ARS 0 CHE 2
  10. 10 ARS 0 CHE 1

The goals

Arsenal’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Arsenal was ahead in it, below while Chelsea was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 21' William Saliba (Arsenal) 1–0 +24% Arsenal
2. 45+2' Piero Hincapie (Chelsea, own goal) 1–1 +29% Chelsea
3. 66' Jurrien Timber (Arsenal) 2–1 +36% Arsenal

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Arsenal win 75% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 28 matches, 2025-26 · Arsenal · Chelsea

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