Matchday 28 · Premier League 2025-26 · March 1, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man United 2–1 Crystal Palace: lucky or expected?
Man United beat Crystal Palace 2–1, and the goals lean Man United’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Crystal Palace, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man United were expected to score 1.9 here and Crystal Palace 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester United | 2 |
 Crystal Palace | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +29 Man United lucky · −29 Crystal Palace
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 6, 2 end level, Crystal Palace win 2.
- 1 MUN 1 CRY 0
- 2 MUN 1 CRY 0
- 3 MUN 2 CRY 1
- 4 MUN 2 CRY 0
- 5 MUN 3 CRY 0
- 6 MUN 4 CRY 0
- 7 MUN 1 CRY 1
- 8 MUN 1 CRY 1
- 9 MUN 2 CRY 4
- 10 MUN 0 CRY 1
The goals
Man United’s chance of winning
As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 4' | Maxence Lacroix (Crystal Palace) | 0–1 | +24% Crystal Palace |
| 2. 57' | Bruno Fernandes (Man United, penalty) | 1–1 | +35% Man United |
| 3. 65' | Benjamin Sesko (Man United) | 2–1 | +35% Man United |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man United win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 28 matches, 2025-26 · 
Man United · 
Crystal Palace
More from matchday 28, 2025-26
- Wolves 2–0 Aston Villa Feb 27, 2026 · replay 32% for Wolves
- Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland Feb 28, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Burnley 3–4 Brentford Feb 28, 2026 · replay 64% for Brentford
- Liverpool 5–2 West Ham Feb 28, 2026 · replay 70% for Liverpool
- Newcastle 2–3 Everton Feb 28, 2026 · replay 43% for Everton
- Leeds 0–1 Man City Feb 28, 2026 · replay 66% for Man City
- Brighton 2–1 Forest Mar 1, 2026 · replay 63% for Brighton
- Fulham 2–1 Tottenham Mar 1, 2026 · replay 60% for Fulham
- Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea Mar 1, 2026 · replay 75% for Arsenal