luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 28 · Premier League 2025-26 · February 28, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Burnley 3–4 Brentford: lucky or expected?

Brentford beat Burnley 4–3, and the goals lean Brentford’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Burnley, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Burnley were expected to score 1.2 here and Brentford 1.8. An own goal helped Burnley.

Full time

Goals
Burnley 3
Brentford 4

February 28, 2026

Luck index +36 Brentford lucky · −36 Burnley

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Burnley win 2, 2 end level, Brentford win 6.

  1. 1 BUR 2 BRE 1
  2. 2 BUR 2 BRE 0
  3. 3 BUR 2 BRE 2
  4. 4 BUR 2 BRE 2
  5. 5 BUR 0 BRE 4
  6. 6 BUR 0 BRE 3
  7. 7 BUR 1 BRE 3
  8. 8 BUR 2 BRE 4
  9. 9 BUR 1 BRE 2
  10. 10 BUR 0 BRE 1

The goals

Burnley’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Burnley was ahead in it, below while Brentford was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 9' Mikkel Damsgaard (Brentford) 0–1 +25% Brentford
2. 25' Igor Thiago (Brentford) 0–2 +18% Brentford
3. 34' Kevin Schade (Brentford) 0–3 +7% Brentford
4. 45+3' Michael Kayode (Burnley, own goal) 1–3 +16% Burnley
5. 47' Jaidon Anthony (Burnley) 2–3 +5% Burnley
6. 60' Zian Flemming (Burnley) 3–3 +36% Burnley
90+3' Mikkel Damsgaard (Brentford) 3–4

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Brentford win 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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