Matchday 29 · Premier League 2025-26 · March 4, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man City 2–2 Forest: lucky or expected?
Man City and Forest drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Man City win 7 of 10, Forest 1, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man City were expected to score 2.1 here and Forest 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester City | 2 |
 Nottingham Forest | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index −29 Man City unlucky for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 7, 2 end level, Forest win 1.
- 1 MCI 2 NFO 1
- 2 MCI 1 NFO 0
- 3 MCI 2 NFO 0
- 4 MCI 3 NFO 1
- 5 MCI 2 NFO 0
- 6 MCI 3 NFO 0
- 7 MCI 4 NFO 0
- 8 MCI 0 NFO 0
- 9 MCI 0 NFO 0
- 10 MCI 2 NFO 3
The goals
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 31' | Antoine Semenyo (Man City) | 1–0 | +26% Man City |
| 2. 56' | Morgan Gibbs White (Forest) | 1–1 | +32% Forest |
| 3. 62' | Rodri (Man City) | 2–1 | +34% Man City |
| 4. 76' | Elliot Anderson (Forest) | 2–2 | +41% Forest |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 29, 2025-26
- Everton 2–0 Burnley Mar 3, 2026 · replay 73% for Everton
- Bournemouth 0–0 Brentford Mar 3, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Leeds 0–1 Sunderland Mar 3, 2026 · replay 43% for Sunderland
- Wolves 2–1 Liverpool Mar 3, 2026 · replay 31% for Wolves
- Fulham 0–1 West Ham Mar 4, 2026 · replay 35% for West Ham
- Brighton 0–1 Arsenal Mar 4, 2026 · replay 63% for Arsenal
- Aston Villa 1–4 Chelsea Mar 4, 2026 · replay 43% for Chelsea
- Newcastle 2–1 Man United Mar 4, 2026 · replay 46% for Newcastle
- Tottenham 1–3 Crystal Palace Mar 5, 2026 · replay 42% for Crystal Palace