Matchday 29 · Premier League 2025-26 · March 5, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Tottenham 1–3 Crystal Palace: lucky or expected?
Crystal Palace beat Tottenham 3–1, but the goals lean toward Tottenham: 4 wins in 10 to Crystal Palace’s 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Tottenham were expected to score 1.4 here and Crystal Palace 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Tottenham Hotspur | 1 |
 Crystal Palace | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +58 Crystal Palace lucky · −58 Tottenham
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Tottenham win 4, 3 end level, Crystal Palace win 3.
- 1 TOT 1 CRY 0
- 2 TOT 1 CRY 0
- 3 TOT 3 CRY 1
- 4 TOT 3 CRY 0
- 5 TOT 4 CRY 4
- 6 TOT 2 CRY 2
- 7 TOT 1 CRY 1
- 8 TOT 0 CRY 2
- 9 TOT 0 CRY 1
- 10 TOT 1 CRY 2
The goals
Tottenham’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 34' | Dominic Solanke (Tottenham) | 1–0 | +27% Tottenham |
| 2. 40' | Ismaila Sarr (Crystal Palace, penalty) | 1–1 | +28% Crystal Palace |
| 3. 45+1' | Jorgen Strand Larsen (Crystal Palace) | 1–2 | +32% Crystal Palace |
| 4. 45+7' | Ismaila Sarr (Crystal Palace) | 1–3 | +16% Crystal Palace |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Crystal Palace win 42% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 29 matches, 2025-26 · 
Tottenham · 
Crystal Palace
More from matchday 29, 2025-26
- Everton 2–0 Burnley Mar 3, 2026 · replay 73% for Everton
- Bournemouth 0–0 Brentford Mar 3, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Leeds 0–1 Sunderland Mar 3, 2026 · replay 43% for Sunderland
- Wolves 2–1 Liverpool Mar 3, 2026 · replay 31% for Wolves
- Man City 2–2 Forest Mar 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Fulham 0–1 West Ham Mar 4, 2026 · replay 35% for West Ham
- Brighton 0–1 Arsenal Mar 4, 2026 · replay 63% for Arsenal
- Aston Villa 1–4 Chelsea Mar 4, 2026 · replay 43% for Chelsea
- Newcastle 2–1 Man United Mar 4, 2026 · replay 46% for Newcastle