Matchday 29 · Premier League 2025-26 · March 4, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Newcastle 2–1 Man United: lucky or expected?
Newcastle beat Man United 2–1, but the goals call it even: Newcastle win 3 of 10, Man United 5, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Newcastle were expected to score 1.5 here and Man United 1.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 2 |
 Manchester United | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +54 Newcastle lucky · −54 Man United
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 3, 2 end level, Man United win 5.
- 1 NEW 1 MUN 0
- 2 NEW 2 MUN 0
- 3 NEW 4 MUN 1
- 4 NEW 0 MUN 0
- 5 NEW 2 MUN 2
- 6 NEW 0 MUN 3
- 7 NEW 0 MUN 2
- 8 NEW 0 MUN 1
- 9 NEW 1 MUN 2
- 10 NEW 0 MUN 1
The goals
Newcastle’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 45+6' | Anthony Gordon (Newcastle, penalty) | 1–0 | +30% Newcastle |
| 2. 45+9' | Casemiro (Man United) | 1–1 | +31% Man United |
| 3. 90' | William Osula (Newcastle) | 2–1 | +50% Newcastle |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Newcastle win 46% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 29, 2025-26
- Everton 2–0 Burnley Mar 3, 2026 · replay 73% for Everton
- Bournemouth 0–0 Brentford Mar 3, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Leeds 0–1 Sunderland Mar 3, 2026 · replay 43% for Sunderland
- Wolves 2–1 Liverpool Mar 3, 2026 · replay 31% for Wolves
- Man City 2–2 Forest Mar 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Fulham 0–1 West Ham Mar 4, 2026 · replay 35% for West Ham
- Brighton 0–1 Arsenal Mar 4, 2026 · replay 63% for Arsenal
- Aston Villa 1–4 Chelsea Mar 4, 2026 · replay 43% for Chelsea
- Tottenham 1–3 Crystal Palace Mar 5, 2026 · replay 42% for Crystal Palace