Matchday 33 · Premier League 2025-26 · April 18, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Newcastle 1–2 Bournemouth: lucky or expected?
Bournemouth beat Newcastle 2–1, but the goals call it even: Bournemouth win 3 of 10, Newcastle 4, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Newcastle were expected to score 1.6 here and Bournemouth 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 1 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +53 Bournemouth lucky · −53 Newcastle
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 4, 3 end level, Bournemouth win 3.
- 1 NEW 2 BOU 1
- 2 NEW 4 BOU 3
- 3 NEW 4 BOU 2
- 4 NEW 4 BOU 1
- 5 NEW 2 BOU 2
- 6 NEW 1 BOU 1
- 7 NEW 1 BOU 1
- 8 NEW 2 BOU 5
- 9 NEW 3 BOU 4
- 10 NEW 2 BOU 3
The goals
Newcastle’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 32' | Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth) | 0–1 | +29% Bournemouth |
| 2. 68' | William Osula (Newcastle) | 1–1 | +39% Newcastle |
| 3. 85' | Adrien Truffert (Bournemouth) | 1–2 | +47% Bournemouth |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Bournemouth win 47% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2025-26
- Brentford 0–0 Fulham Apr 18, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Leeds 3–0 Wolves Apr 18, 2026 · replay 75% for Leeds
- Tottenham 2–2 Brighton Apr 18, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Chelsea 0–1 Man United Apr 18, 2026 · replay 51% for Man United
- Aston Villa 4–3 Sunderland Apr 19, 2026 · replay 63% for Aston Villa
- Everton 1–2 Liverpool Apr 19, 2026 · replay 50% for Liverpool
- Forest 4–1 Burnley Apr 19, 2026 · replay 72% for Forest
- Man City 2–1 Arsenal Apr 19, 2026 · replay 56% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–0 West Ham Apr 20, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws