Matchday 33 · Premier League 2025-26 · April 19, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man City 2–1 Arsenal: lucky or expected?
Man City beat Arsenal 2–1, and the goals lean Man City’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Arsenal, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man City were expected to score 1.5 here and Arsenal 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester City | 2 |
 Arsenal | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +44 Man City lucky · −44 Arsenal
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 4, 3 end level, Arsenal win 3.
- 1 MCI 2 ARS 1
- 2 MCI 4 ARS 3
- 3 MCI 2 ARS 0
- 4 MCI 5 ARS 2
- 5 MCI 1 ARS 1
- 6 MCI 2 ARS 2
- 7 MCI 0 ARS 0
- 8 MCI 1 ARS 4
- 9 MCI 0 ARS 1
- 10 MCI 0 ARS 1
The goals
Man City’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 16' | Rayan Cherki (Man City) | 1–0 | +24% Man City |
| 2. 18' | Kai Havertz (Arsenal) | 1–1 | +24% Arsenal |
| 3. 65' | Erling Haaland (Man City) | 2–1 | +35% Man City |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man City win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2025-26
- Brentford 0–0 Fulham Apr 18, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Leeds 3–0 Wolves Apr 18, 2026 · replay 75% for Leeds
- Newcastle 1–2 Bournemouth Apr 18, 2026 · replay 47% for Bournemouth
- Tottenham 2–2 Brighton Apr 18, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Chelsea 0–1 Man United Apr 18, 2026 · replay 51% for Man United
- Aston Villa 4–3 Sunderland Apr 19, 2026 · replay 63% for Aston Villa
- Everton 1–2 Liverpool Apr 19, 2026 · replay 50% for Liverpool
- Forest 4–1 Burnley Apr 19, 2026 · replay 72% for Forest
- Crystal Palace 0–0 West Ham Apr 20, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws