Matchday 33 · Premier League 2025-26 · April 19, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Forest 4–1 Burnley: lucky or expected?
Forest beat Burnley 4–1, and the goals lean Forest’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Burnley, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Forest were expected to score 1.9 here and Burnley 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Nottingham Forest | 4 |
 Burnley | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +28 Forest lucky · −28 Burnley
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Forest win 6, 2 end level, Burnley win 2.
- 1 NFO 2 BUR 1
- 2 NFO 2 BUR 1
- 3 NFO 2 BUR 0
- 4 NFO 2 BUR 0
- 5 NFO 4 BUR 1
- 6 NFO 4 BUR 0
- 7 NFO 1 BUR 1
- 8 NFO 1 BUR 1
- 9 NFO 0 BUR 1
- 10 NFO 0 BUR 1
The goals
Forest’s chance of winning
As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 45+2' | Zian Flemming (Burnley) | 0–1 | +32% Burnley |
| 2. 62' | Morgan Gibbs White (Forest) | 1–1 | +36% Forest |
| 3. 69' | Morgan Gibbs White (Forest) | 2–1 | +37% Forest |
| 4. 77' | Morgan Gibbs White (Forest) | 3–1 | +7% Forest |
| 90+8' | Igor Jesus (Forest) | 4–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Forest win 72% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 33, 2025-26
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- Chelsea 0–1 Man United Apr 18, 2026 · replay 51% for Man United
- Aston Villa 4–3 Sunderland Apr 19, 2026 · replay 63% for Aston Villa
- Everton 1–2 Liverpool Apr 19, 2026 · replay 50% for Liverpool
- Man City 2–1 Arsenal Apr 19, 2026 · replay 56% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–0 West Ham Apr 20, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws