Matchday 34 · Premier League 2025-26 · April 21, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Brighton 3–0 Chelsea: lucky or expected?
Brighton beat Chelsea 3–0, and the goals lean Brighton’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Chelsea, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Brighton were expected to score 1.5 here and Chelsea 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 |
 Chelsea | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +43 Brighton lucky · −43 Chelsea
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Brighton win 4, 3 end level, Chelsea win 3.
- 1 BHA 3 CHE 2
- 2 BHA 1 CHE 0
- 3 BHA 2 CHE 0
- 4 BHA 3 CHE 0
- 5 BHA 2 CHE 2
- 6 BHA 1 CHE 1
- 7 BHA 1 CHE 1
- 8 BHA 0 CHE 2
- 9 BHA 1 CHE 2
- 10 BHA 0 CHE 1
The goals
Brighton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 3' | Ferdi Kadioglu (Brighton) | 1–0 | +22% Brighton |
| 2. 56' | Jack Hinshelwood (Brighton) | 2–0 | +11% Brighton |
| 90+1' | Danny Welbeck (Brighton) | 3–0 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Brighton win 57% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 34, 2025-26
- Bournemouth 2–2 Leeds Apr 22, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Burnley 0–1 Man City Apr 22, 2026 · replay 80% for Man City
- Sunderland 0–5 Forest Apr 24, 2026 · replay 42% for Forest
- Fulham 1–0 Aston Villa Apr 25, 2026 · replay 51% for Fulham
- Liverpool 3–1 Crystal Palace Apr 25, 2026 · replay 67% for Liverpool
- Wolves 0–1 Tottenham Apr 25, 2026 · replay 60% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–1 Everton Apr 25, 2026 · replay 48% for West Ham
- Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle Apr 25, 2026 · replay 78% for Arsenal
- Man United 2–1 Brentford Apr 27, 2026 · replay 64% for Man United