luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 34 · Premier League 2025-26 · April 25, 2026

Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.

Fulham 1–0 Aston Villa: lucky or expected?

Fulham beat Aston Villa 1–0, but the goals call it even: Fulham win 4 of 10, Aston Villa 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Fulham were expected to score 1.3 here and Aston Villa 1.3.

Full time

Goals
Fulham 1
Aston Villa 0

April 25, 2026

Luck index +49 Fulham lucky · −49 Aston Villa

Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works

Ten replays. Fulham win 4, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 3.

  1. 1 FUL 2 AVL 1
  2. 2 FUL 2 AVL 1
  3. 3 FUL 2 AVL 0
  4. 4 FUL 3 AVL 0
  5. 5 FUL 1 AVL 1
  6. 6 FUL 0 AVL 0
  7. 7 FUL 0 AVL 0
  8. 8 FUL 0 AVL 2
  9. 9 FUL 0 AVL 1
  10. 10 FUL 1 AVL 2

The goals

Fulham’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the goals, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Fulham was ahead in it, below while Aston Villa was.
MinuteGoalScoreWin chance
1. 43' Kouassi Ryan Sessegnon (Fulham) 1–0 +28% Fulham

Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.

About these numbers

Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Fulham win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 34 matches, 2025-26 · Fulham · Aston Villa

More from matchday 34, 2025-26

Every match of matchday 34, 2025-26