Matchday 34 · Premier League 2025-26 · April 27, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man United 2–1 Brentford: lucky or expected?
Man United beat Brentford 2–1, and the goals lean Man United’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Brentford, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man United were expected to score 2.0 here and Brentford 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester United | 2 |
 Brentford | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +36 Man United lucky · −36 Brentford
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 5, 2 end level, Brentford win 3.
- 1 MUN 1 BRE 0
- 2 MUN 1 BRE 0
- 3 MUN 4 BRE 2
- 4 MUN 4 BRE 1
- 5 MUN 4 BRE 0
- 6 MUN 2 BRE 2
- 7 MUN 1 BRE 1
- 8 MUN 1 BRE 4
- 9 MUN 2 BRE 3
- 10 MUN 0 BRE 1
The goals
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 11' | Casemiro (Man United) | 1–0 | +23% Man United |
| 2. 43' | Benjamin Sesko (Man United) | 2–0 | +13% Man United |
| 3. 87' | Mathias Jensen (Brentford) | 2–1 | +2% Brentford |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man United win 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 34, 2025-26
- Brighton 3–0 Chelsea Apr 21, 2026 · replay 57% for Brighton
- Bournemouth 2–2 Leeds Apr 22, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Burnley 0–1 Man City Apr 22, 2026 · replay 80% for Man City
- Sunderland 0–5 Forest Apr 24, 2026 · replay 42% for Forest
- Fulham 1–0 Aston Villa Apr 25, 2026 · replay 51% for Fulham
- Liverpool 3–1 Crystal Palace Apr 25, 2026 · replay 67% for Liverpool
- Wolves 0–1 Tottenham Apr 25, 2026 · replay 60% for Tottenham
- West Ham 2–1 Everton Apr 25, 2026 · replay 48% for West Ham
- Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle Apr 25, 2026 · replay 78% for Arsenal