Matchday 35 · Premier League 2025-26 · May 2, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Newcastle 3–1 Brighton: lucky or expected?
Newcastle beat Brighton 3–1, but the goals call it even: Newcastle win 4 of 10, Brighton 3, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Newcastle were expected to score 1.4 here and Brighton 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Newcastle United | 3 |
 Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index +48 Newcastle lucky · −48 Brighton
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Newcastle win 4, 3 end level, Brighton win 3.
- 1 NEW 2 BHA 1
- 2 NEW 1 BHA 0
- 3 NEW 2 BHA 0
- 4 NEW 3 BHA 0
- 5 NEW 2 BHA 2
- 6 NEW 1 BHA 1
- 7 NEW 1 BHA 1
- 8 NEW 0 BHA 2
- 9 NEW 3 BHA 4
- 10 NEW 1 BHA 2
The goals
Newcastle’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 12' | William Osula (Newcastle) | 1–0 | +23% Newcastle |
| 2. 24' | Dan Burn (Newcastle) | 2–0 | +13% Newcastle |
| 3. 61' | Jack Hinshelwood (Brighton) | 2–1 | +11% Brighton |
| 90+5' | Harvey Barnes (Newcastle) | 3–1 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Newcastle win 52% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 35, 2025-26
- Leeds 3–1 Burnley May 1, 2026 · replay 72% for Leeds
- Brentford 3–0 West Ham May 2, 2026 · replay 68% for Brentford
- Wolves 1–1 Sunderland May 2, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Arsenal 3–0 Fulham May 2, 2026 · replay 81% for Arsenal
- Bournemouth 3–0 Crystal Palace May 3, 2026 · replay 65% for Bournemouth
- Man United 3–2 Liverpool May 3, 2026 · replay 60% for Man United
- Aston Villa 1–2 Tottenham May 3, 2026 · replay 35% for Tottenham
- Chelsea 1–3 Forest May 4, 2026 · replay 38% for Forest
- Everton 3–3 Man City May 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws