Matchday 35 · Premier League 2025-26 · May 3, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man United 3–2 Liverpool: lucky or expected?
Man United beat Liverpool 3–2, and the goals lean Man United’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Liverpool, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man United were expected to score 2.0 here and Liverpool 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester United | 3 |
 Liverpool | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +40 Man United lucky · −40 Liverpool
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 5, 2 end level, Liverpool win 3.
- 1 MUN 1 LIV 0
- 2 MUN 1 LIV 0
- 3 MUN 3 LIV 1
- 4 MUN 2 LIV 0
- 5 MUN 4 LIV 0
- 6 MUN 2 LIV 2
- 7 MUN 1 LIV 1
- 8 MUN 0 LIV 3
- 9 MUN 0 LIV 1
- 10 MUN 1 LIV 2
The goals
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 6' | Matheus Cunha (Man United) | 1–0 | +22% Man United |
| 2. 14' | Benjamin Sesko (Man United) | 2–0 | +13% Man United |
| 3. 47' | Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool) | 2–1 | +12% Liverpool |
| 4. 56' | Cody Gakpo (Liverpool) | 2–2 | +32% Liverpool |
| 5. 77' | Kobbie Mainoo (Man United) | 3–2 | +41% Man United |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Man United win 60% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 35, 2025-26
- Leeds 3–1 Burnley May 1, 2026 · replay 72% for Leeds
- Newcastle 3–1 Brighton May 2, 2026 · replay 52% for Newcastle
- Brentford 3–0 West Ham May 2, 2026 · replay 68% for Brentford
- Wolves 1–1 Sunderland May 2, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Arsenal 3–0 Fulham May 2, 2026 · replay 81% for Arsenal
- Bournemouth 3–0 Crystal Palace May 3, 2026 · replay 65% for Bournemouth
- Aston Villa 1–2 Tottenham May 3, 2026 · replay 35% for Tottenham
- Chelsea 1–3 Forest May 4, 2026 · replay 38% for Forest
- Everton 3–3 Man City May 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws