Matchday 35 · Premier League 2025-26 · May 3, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Bournemouth 3–0 Crystal Palace: lucky or expected?
Bournemouth beat Crystal Palace 3–0, and the goals lean Bournemouth’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Crystal Palace, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Bournemouth were expected to score 1.6 here and Crystal Palace 1.0. An own goal helped Bournemouth.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 3 |
 Crystal Palace | 0 |
What the goals say
Luck index +35 Bournemouth lucky · −35 Crystal Palace
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 5, 3 end level, Crystal Palace win 2.
- 1 BOU 1 CRY 0
- 2 BOU 1 CRY 0
- 3 BOU 2 CRY 0
- 4 BOU 4 CRY 2
- 5 BOU 3 CRY 0
- 6 BOU 1 CRY 1
- 7 BOU 2 CRY 2
- 8 BOU 2 CRY 2
- 9 BOU 0 CRY 2
- 10 BOU 2 CRY 3
The goals
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 10' | Jefferson Lerma (Bournemouth, own goal) | 1–0 | +23% Bournemouth |
| 2. 32' | Eli Junior Kroupi (Bournemouth, penalty) | 2–0 | +13% Bournemouth |
| 3. 77' | Rayan (Bournemouth) | 3–0 | +1% Bournemouth |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Bournemouth win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 35 matches, 2025-26 · 
Bournemouth · 
Crystal Palace
More from matchday 35, 2025-26
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