Matchday 35 · Premier League 2025-26 · May 4, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Chelsea 1–3 Forest: lucky or expected?
Forest beat Chelsea 3–1, but the goals lean toward Chelsea: 5 wins in 10 to Forest’s 2, 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Chelsea were expected to score 1.6 here and Forest 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Chelsea | 1 |
 Nottingham Forest | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +62 Forest very lucky · −62 Chelsea
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 5, 3 end level, Forest win 2.
- 1 CHE 2 NFO 1
- 2 CHE 2 NFO 1
- 3 CHE 3 NFO 1
- 4 CHE 3 NFO 1
- 5 CHE 3 NFO 0
- 6 CHE 1 NFO 1
- 7 CHE 0 NFO 0
- 8 CHE 3 NFO 3
- 9 CHE 2 NFO 4
- 10 CHE 0 NFO 1
The goals
Chelsea’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 2' | Taiwo Awoniyi (Forest) | 0–1 | +24% Forest |
| 2. 15' | Igor Jesus (Forest, penalty) | 0–2 | +18% Forest |
| 3. 52' | Taiwo Awoniyi (Forest) | 0–3 | +4% Forest |
| 90+3' | Joao Pedro (Chelsea) | 1–3 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Forest win 38% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 35, 2025-26
- Leeds 3–1 Burnley May 1, 2026 · replay 72% for Leeds
- Newcastle 3–1 Brighton May 2, 2026 · replay 52% for Newcastle
- Brentford 3–0 West Ham May 2, 2026 · replay 68% for Brentford
- Wolves 1–1 Sunderland May 2, 2026 · drawn; replay 30% draws
- Arsenal 3–0 Fulham May 2, 2026 · replay 81% for Arsenal
- Bournemouth 3–0 Crystal Palace May 3, 2026 · replay 65% for Bournemouth
- Man United 3–2 Liverpool May 3, 2026 · replay 60% for Man United
- Aston Villa 1–2 Tottenham May 3, 2026 · replay 35% for Tottenham
- Everton 3–3 Man City May 4, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws