Matchday 36 · Premier League 2025-26 · May 10, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Burnley 2–2 Aston Villa: lucky or expected?
Burnley and Aston Villa drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Burnley win 2 of 10, Aston Villa 6, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Burnley were expected to score 1.1 here and Aston Villa 1.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Burnley | 2 |
 Aston Villa | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +15 Burnley about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Burnley win 2, 2 end level, Aston Villa win 6.
- 1 BUR 1 AVL 0
- 2 BUR 4 AVL 2
- 3 BUR 1 AVL 1
- 4 BUR 0 AVL 0
- 5 BUR 0 AVL 4
- 6 BUR 0 AVL 3
- 7 BUR 0 AVL 2
- 8 BUR 0 AVL 2
- 9 BUR 0 AVL 1
- 10 BUR 0 AVL 1
The goals
Burnley’s chance of winning
As low as 19% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 8' | Jaidon Anthony (Burnley) | 1–0 | +23% Burnley |
| 2. 42' | Ross Barkley (Aston Villa) | 1–1 | +28% Aston Villa |
| 3. 56' | Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) | 1–2 | +34% Aston Villa |
| 4. 58' | Zian Flemming (Burnley) | 2–2 | +35% Burnley |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 36, 2025-26
- Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea May 9, 2026 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Sunderland 0–0 Man United May 9, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Brighton 3–0 Wolves May 9, 2026 · replay 81% for Brighton
- Fulham 0–1 Bournemouth May 9, 2026 · replay 48% for Bournemouth
- Man City 3–0 Brentford May 9, 2026 · replay 75% for Man City
- Forest 1–1 Newcastle May 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 28% draws
- Crystal Palace 2–2 Everton May 10, 2026 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- West Ham 0–1 Arsenal May 10, 2026 · replay 75% for Arsenal
- Tottenham 1–1 Leeds May 11, 2026 · drawn; replay 27% draws