Matchday 36 · Premier League 2025-26 · May 10, 2026
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Crystal Palace 2–2 Everton: lucky or expected?
Crystal Palace and Everton drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Crystal Palace win 4 of 10, Everton 3, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Crystal Palace were expected to score 1.2 here and Everton 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 2 |
 Everton | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index −3 Crystal Palace about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 4, 3 end level, Everton win 3.
- 1 CRY 2 EVE 1
- 2 CRY 1 EVE 0
- 3 CRY 4 EVE 2
- 4 CRY 3 EVE 1
- 5 CRY 0 EVE 0
- 6 CRY 0 EVE 0
- 7 CRY 3 EVE 3
- 8 CRY 0 EVE 2
- 9 CRY 1 EVE 2
- 10 CRY 0 EVE 1
The goals
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
As low as 9% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 6' | James Tarkowski (Everton) | 0–1 | +24% Everton |
| 2. 34' | Ismaila Sarr (Crystal Palace) | 1–1 | +29% Crystal Palace |
| 3. 47' | Beto (Everton) | 1–2 | +32% Everton |
| 4. 77' | Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace) | 2–2 | +43% Crystal Palace |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 36, 2025-26
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