Round of 16 · World Cup 2022 · December 3, 2022
Netherlands 3–1 United States: who deserved to win?
Netherlands beat United States 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Netherlands go through 6 times in 10. The chances were close to even (1.5 expected goals to 1.6).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | 3 | 1.48 |
 United States | 1 | 1.65 |
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +36 Netherlands lucky · −36 United States
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Netherlands win 5, 2 end level, United States win 3.
- 1 NED 1 USA 0
- 2 NED 1 USA 0
- 3 NED 4 USA 2
- 4 NED 2 USA 0
- 5 NED 5 USA 1
- 6 NED 1 USA 1
- 7 NED 1 USA 1
- 8 NED 0 USA 2
- 9 NED 1 USA 2
- 10 NED 2 USA 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Netherlands win 54%, 22% end level, United States win 24%. The line is what actually happened: Netherlands by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Netherlands by 3+ | 15.0% |
| Netherlands by 2 | 16.0% |
| Netherlands by 1 | 22.6% |
| Draw | 22.4% |
| United States by 1 | 14.5% |
| United States by 2 | 6.2% |
| United States by 3+ | 3.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | 11 | 3 | 1.48 | +1.52 |
 United States | 18 | 1 | 1.65 | −0.65 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Christian Pulisic didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 9' | Memphis Depay scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 45' | Daley Blind scored from a shot | 0.25 |
| 75' | Haji Wright scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 80' | Denzel Dumfries scored from a shot | 0.24 |
When it happened
Netherlands’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Christian Pulisic didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +8% NED |
| 2 | 9' | Memphis Depay scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +20% NED |
| 3 | 43' | Sergino Dest didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% NED |
| 4 | 45' | Daley Blind scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +11% NED |
| 5 | 48' | Tim Ream didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +4% NED |
| 6 | 75' | Haji Wright scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +5% USA |
| 7 | 77' | Steven Bergwijn didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +2% USA |
| 8 | 80' | Denzel Dumfries scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +4% NED |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Netherlands go through in 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2022
- Argentina 2–1 Australia Dec 3, 2022 · replay 86% for Argentina
- England 3–0 Senegal Dec 4, 2022 · replay 60% for England
- France 3–1 Poland Dec 4, 2022 · replay 48% for France
- Japan 1–1 Croatia Dec 5, 2022 · pens · replay 41% for Croatia
- Brazil 4–1 South Korea Dec 5, 2022 · replay 99% for Brazil
- Portugal 6–1 Switzerland Dec 6, 2022 · replay 89% for Portugal
- Morocco 0–0 Spain Dec 6, 2022 · pens · replay 63% for Morocco