luckadjusted
World Cup Final · 2026

Round of 16 · World Cup 2022 · December 5, 2022

Brazil 4–1 South Korea: who deserved to win?

Brazil beat South Korea 4–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Brazil go through 10 times in 10. Brazil made the better chances: 3.3 expected goals to 0.3.

Full time

GoalsxG
Brazil 4 3.26
South Korea 1 0.34

December 5, 2022 · Stadium 974 · Referee: Clément Turpin

Luck index +1 Brazil about even · −1 South Korea

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Brazil win 10, 0 end level, South Korea win 0.

  1. 1 BRA 1 KOR 0
  2. 2 BRA 3 KOR 1
  3. 3 BRA 3 KOR 0
  4. 4 BRA 4 KOR 1
  5. 5 BRA 4 KOR 0
  6. 6 BRA 5 KOR 0
  7. 7 BRA 5 KOR 0
  8. 8 BRA 6 KOR 0
  9. 9 BRA 7 KOR 0
  10. 10 BRA 8 KOR 0

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Brazil win 98%, 2% end level, South Korea win 0%. The line is what actually happened: Brazil by 3.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Brazil by 3+79.8%
Brazil by 212.0%
Brazil by 16.1%
Draw1.8%
South Korea by 10.3%
South Korea by 20.0%
South Korea by 3+0.0%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Brazil18 (1 pen)43.26+0.74
South Korea810.34+0.66

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
6'Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira Júnior scored from a shot0.13
12'Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a penalty0.78
28'Richarlison de Andrade scored from a shot0.54
35'Lucas Tolentino Coelho de Lima scored from a shot0.09
75'Seung-Ho Paik scored from a shot0.02
89'Gleison Bremer Silva Nascimento didn’t score from a shot0.34

When it happened

Brazil’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Brazil was ahead in it, below while South Korea was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 6' Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +2% KOR
2 6' Vinícius José Paixão de Oliveira Júnior scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance +21% BRA
3 12' Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance +3% BRA
4 16' Hee-Chan Hwang didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance +0% BRA
5 16' In-Beom Hwang didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance +0% BRA
6 28' Richarlison de Andrade scored from a shotFinishing · 54% chance +3% BRA
7 35' Lucas Tolentino Coelho de Lima scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +1% BRA
8 46' Heung-Min Son didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance +0% BRA

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Brazil go through in 99% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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